| 航天电子设备可靠性评估方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙鹏,赵阳,董海平.航天电子设备可靠性评估方法研究[J].空间科学学报,2012,32(2):265-269. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙鹏 赵阳 董海平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京航天自动控制研究所,北京,100854
2. 北京理工大学机电学院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了一种综合利用航天电子设备分系统可靠性信息和试验数据以及整机系统试验数据的Bayes可靠性评估方法.该方法利用最大熵方法融合分系统可靠性信息,推导了从分系统可靠性矩到系统可靠性矩的计算公式,然后建立了基于继承因子ρ的混合β先验分布,结合整机系统试验数据确定后验分布,最后,基于后验分布推断航天电子设备可靠性.采用该方法对航天电子设备可靠性进行了评估,当整机系统试验数据为240次时,航天电子设备在置信水平0.70的情况下可靠度可达到0.9991,所要求的整机系统试验次数比经典方法约降低了4/5.
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| 关 键 词： | 航天电子设备 可靠性 最大熵方法 混合β分布 继承因子 后验分布 |
Study on Assessment Method of Reliability of Spaceflight Electronic Device |
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| SUN Peng,ZHAO Yang,DONG Haiping.Study on Assessment Method of Reliability of Spaceflight Electronic Device[J].Chinese Journal of Space Science,2012,32(2):265-269. |
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| Authors: | SUN Peng ZHAO Yang DONG Haiping |
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| Institution: | 1(Beijing Spaceflight Autocontrol Research Institute,Beijing 100854) 2(School of Mechatronical Engineering,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | A Bayesian reliability assessment method for spaceflight electronic device is put forward. The method combines the reliability information of the whole system and its subsystems.At first, the maximum entropy method is used to syncretize reliability information of subsystems;then the calculation formulas of moments of system reliability are deduced from reliability moments of subsystems and inheritance factor is determined and mixed Beta distribution is built;finally,the posterior distribution is used to assess system reliability.With the new method,the reliability of a spaceflight electronic device is evaluated to reach 0.9991 under the confidence level 0.70 with 240 whole system tests which is one-fifth of system tests needed by the classical method.It is feasible to use the new method to assess reliability of spaceflight electronic device. |
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| Keywords: | Spaceflight electronic device Reliability The maximum entropy method Mixed β distribution Inheritance factor Posterior distribution |
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