太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅱ)

太阳活动指数中期预报一直是空间环境业务预报的难点之一.本文在自回归方法模型的基础上,利用太阳活动区面积、位置等参数与10.7cm辐射流量之间的定量关系,根据活动区面积衰减规律,建立了一个基于活动区参数及演化规律的改进型太阳活动指数中期预报模型.通过对预报测试实例分析发现,在日面出现较大活动区导致F_(10.7)迅速增长并超过历史数据峰值的情况,在日面活动区消亡导致指数突然出现平静期的情况,新模型的预报准确性相比自回归模型有很大提高,预报的平均相对误差下降约5%～9%.由此可见,新模型在某些特定条件下提高了原有模型的精度.该研究为提高业务型太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型的预报精度奠定了基础.

Model Research of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux 27-day Forecast (H)

The mid-term forecast of daily solax active index is always complex and difficult in space environment forecasting operation. A new 27-day forecast model of 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7 index) based on the observation and general evolution of the solar active regions has been built to improve the Auto-Regress (AR) method. The area and longitude of an active region has been used as control parameters in the new model. The sunspot decay rate suggests a simple way to forecast the area of active region in next solar rotation. The new model is tested in the following two cases: (1) F10.7 index is much larger than usual as unexpected solar active regions appear on the disk; (2) F10.7 index becomes quite peaceful because the dominant solar activity regions disappear. The result indicates that the relative errors of the new model were mainly 5%～9% smaller than those of AR model under these two conditions. That means it is possible to improve the operational forecast model of solar index using the information of solar active regions.