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基于灰色模型的军机两级维修人力效益预测
引用本文:王远达,宋笔锋,卢永吉.基于灰色模型的军机两级维修人力效益预测[J].飞机设计,2008,28(3):54-56.
作者姓名:王远达  宋笔锋  卢永吉
作者单位:1. 西北工业大学,航空学院,陕西,西安,710072;空军航空大学,航空机械工程系,吉林,长春,130022
2. 西北工业大学,航空学院,陕西,西安,710072
3. 空军航空大学,航空机械工程系,吉林,长春,130022
摘    要:维修人力费用估算是军用飞机寿命周期费用估算的重要组成部分。将三级维修体制简化为两级维修,可节省维修人力,并提高战备完好性。引入灰色系统Verhulst模型理论,建立了转换维修体制后的人力节省预测模型,以美空军实际节省的人力数据为例进行预测,结果表明,模型的可信性较高。

关 键 词:军用飞机  灰色Verhulst模型  两级维修  维修人力效益  预测

Manpower Benefit Analysis to Two Level Maintenance of Military Aircraft Based on the Gray Model
WANG Yuan-da,SONG Bi-feng,LU Yong-ji.Manpower Benefit Analysis to Two Level Maintenance of Military Aircraft Based on the Gray Model[J].Aircraft Design,2008,28(3):54-56.
Authors:WANG Yuan-da  SONG Bi-feng  LU Yong-ji
Institution:WANG Yuan-da, SONG Bi-feng, LU Yong-ji ( 1. College of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China;2. Department of Aeronautical Mechanics Engineering, Airforce Aviation University, Changchun 130022, China)
Abstract:Cost estimate of maintenance manpower is the important part of military aircraft LCC cost estimate.Predigesting maintenance system from three levels to two levels maintenance(TLM)could economize manpower and benefit readiness.We import the gray system Verhulst model theory,establish the manpower forecast model after maintenance system is transformed,and predict manpower benefits in accordance with the practice save manpower data of the USAAF.The results proved that the creditability of the forecast model is higher.
Keywords:military aircraft  gray Verhulst model  two level maintenance  maintenance manpower benefit  forecast
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