基于无失效数据的某型发动机可靠性参数Bayes估计

针对装备寿命服从指数分布的情形,以失效率参数作为随机变量构建估计模型。考虑失效率的先验分布为 Gamma分布,在失效率的超参数均服从一定的均匀分布时,提出了失效率的多层 Bayes和期望 Bayes(ExpectedBayes,E-Bayes)估计方法,建立了失效率的多层 Bayes和 E-Bayes估计模型；结合某型装备发动机的无失效储存数据,计算了失效率的多层 Bayes和 E-Bayes估计值,推导了可靠度的多层 Bayes和 E-Bayes估计值。通过比较分析,可靠度的 2种估计结果都是稳健的,而后者略小于前者,且后者的极差比前者减小 81.4%。结果表明,采用 EBayes估计更易于计算,得到的结果更为准确稳健,且更适用于工程应用实际。

Bayesian Estimations of Reliability Parameters on a Certain Engine Based on Zero Failure Data

In allusion to the case that the equipment lifetime was exponentially distributed,the failure rate was chosen as a random variable to construct estimation models. As the prior distribution of failure rate was Gamma distribution and hyperparameters were uniformly distributed, the hierarchical Bayesian estimation and E-Bayes estimation of the failure ratewere proposed. At the same time, the hierarchical Bayesian estimation and E-Bayes estimation models were constructedfor the failure rate. Combined with the zero failure reposition data of a certain engine, the two estimates of failure rate andreliability were calculated. The two estimation results of reliability were robust, the latter reliability estimation was lessthan the former, and the range of the latter was 81.4% less than the former. The results show the E-Bayes estimation wasmore robust and accurate. Furthermore, it was more practical and the calculation was easier.