导弹命中精度评定中贝叶斯方法的应用

针对导弹武器系统试验评定的问题 ,研究了如何在命中精度评定中应用贝叶斯方法。在导弹落点偏差分布为正态 -逆伽马分布的假设下 ,提出以贝叶斯理论为基础 ,利用实际的导弹飞行试验状态信息和试验前的各种已知信息 ,加入弹道的模拟和仿真方法 ,获得评定的验前分布参数 ,使精度评定理论与实际情况相结合的方案。该方案以使用方提出的可信度和最低可信下界为检验精度的指标 ,同时也提出一种运用参数自助 (Bootstrap)方法获得验前分布参数的方法。最后 ,提供了完整的评定流程和说明 ,使实际的评定工作有一个较完整的体系。所提的贝叶斯方法尤其适合于小子样场合下的试验鉴定工作

The application of bayesian method in evaluating missile hitting precision

Aiming at the evaluating of missile system experiment,for the hitting precision evaluation,the Bayesian method is discussed .Under the hypothesis tiat the distribution of hitting deviation obey normal contra gamma distribution,a set of evaluation scheme is given. This scheme is based on the Bayesian law, which use the practical flight condition and all kinds of information before experiment, and take use of trajectory simulation or emulation to obtain the parameter of prior distribution of evaluation. This scheme take the reliability and the lowest reliable boundary that is demanded by user as the aim of testing precision, meanwhile give a kind of way of applying Bootstrap method to obtaining the parameter of prior distribution. It offers a complete evaluating procedure and statement with which make the real work have a relatively complete system. This method especially adapts to small size sample.