基于Fratar模型的航班时刻需求战略预测方法

航班时刻是机场运行的基础和核心,准确预测机场的航班时刻需求,对于指导机场基础设施建设、运行模式调整等具有重要意义。在航班计划结构信息分析的基础上,构建了全国航班O-D矩阵,建立了多层级机场起降量预测模型,并以起降量预测结果为输入,利用Fratar交通分布预测模型,预测目标机场时刻需求。以杭州萧山机场为例,以2010年为基年,2014为预测年,验证了方法的准确性和可行性,并预测了2020年航班时刻需求,分析了不同运行模式下机场理论容量与航班时刻需求的匹配状况,分析结果表明,2020年萧山机场需由隔离运行模式过渡到相关进近,方能满足时刻需求。

Strategy Prediction Methods for Schedule Demand Based on Fratar Model

Air traffic schedule is the foundation and core for airport operations ,accurate prediction of the airport schedule demand contribute to airport infrastructure construction , operation mode adjustment .On the basis of the analysis of the flight plan structure information ,a national flight O-D matrix was built ,and a multi-level airport movements prediction models was established , movements prediction results as in-put,Fratar traffic distribution forecasting model was used to predict the target airport schedule demand . Taken Xiaoshan Airport in Hangzhou for example ,2010 as the base year ,2014 as the prediction year ,ver-ified the accuracy and feasibility of the method ,and predicted the 2020 air traffic schedule demand ,anal-ysis the match condition of airport theoretical capacity and schedule demand on different operation modes,the results showed that in 2020,Xiaoshan Airport operation mode must transfer from segregated operation to relevant approach ,in order to meet the needs of the schedule .