现代战斗机出厂费用预估模型

Burns模型被广泛用于三代战斗机出厂费用的估算,但由于未考虑三代以后的现代战斗机在研制过程中存在的改进改型、研制周期变长和航电设备技术升级等因素,使Burns模型在计算现代战斗机的出厂费用时会出现明显的误差。根据现代战斗机的技术特征,通过分析其研发采购费用的统计数据和研制过程,将改进改型、研制周期和航电设备技术水平等影响因素考虑入内,建立了一种新的出厂费用计算模型。通过以国外有代表性的现代战斗机为算例进行了验证,结果表明新模型的计算精度有了明显改善,具有一定的有效性和实用性。

A Prediction Model for Modern Fighter's Fly-away Cost

Burns model is widely used for estimating the 3rd generation fighter′s fly-away cost,but when it is used to estimate the modern fighter′s cost,there will be unacceptable error of the result.Because Burns model doesn′t take several important factors into account,which are modification and upgrade of previous fighters,discontinuity and delay of R&D phase and technical improvement of avionics.In this paper,to deal with the problem,the research,development and procurement costs,technical features and R&D procedures of existed modern fighters are analyzed;the influences of the factors mentioned above on the fly-away cost are introduced into the estimation method and a new model that suitable for modern fighter′s cost estimation is constructed.In the end,a case study of typical modern fighters in the world is presented,the result′s accuracy is improved a lot compared with Burns model,which shows the new-constructed model′s validity for fly-away cost prediction.