对流天气空域阻塞概率与阻塞指数模型

管制员高估对流天气的影响,发布不必要的流控指令,会使得航班过度延误;管制员低估对流天气的影响,会造成工作负荷的激增,也会使得航班飞行安全风险增大。为了准确评估空域受天气影响程度,减少管制员高估和低估天气影响次数,建立了特定方向对流天气空域阻塞概率模型和航路交通阻塞指数模型。测试结果表明,特定方向对流天气空域阻塞概率模型,用于衡量对流天气下交通流在各个方向被阻塞概率,为管制员决策是否允许航空器沿特定方向在扇区绕飞提供参考有实际意义;对流天气航路交通阻塞指数模型,用于衡量对流天气下沿航路交通流被阻塞的概率,为管制员决策是否允许航空器沿航路穿越对流天气提供参考是可行的。访谈数据表明,90%的参访者同意在这两个参数可得时,他们获取对流天气影响交通态势感知所需要的时间确实有所减少。

Airspace Blocking Probability Model and Traffic Obstruction Index Model under Convective Weather

If air traffic controller （ ATC） overestimate the effects of convective weather ,unnecessary traffic control instructions issued ,would make excessive flight delays .On the contrary,the controller underesti-mates the effects of convective weather ,will cause a surge in workload ,and also makes flight safety risk increases.In order to accurately assess the airspace extent affected by the weather ,as well reduce the o-verestimation and underestimation times by air traffic controller , airspace blocking probability model （ ABP Model ） in specific direction and traffic Obstruction index model （ TOI Model ） were constructed dur-ing convective weather .Test results show that ABP Model used to measure traffic flow blocked in different directions under convective weather is meaningful for ATC decision whether to allow an aircraft in a parti -cular direction to fly around in the sector .Test results also show that TOI Model used to measure the prob-ability of convective weather blocked traffic along the route ,is feasible for ATC decision whether to allow the aircraft penetrating convective weather along the route .The interview data indicated that ,90%of the participants agreed to really reduce the necessary time to access traffic situational awareness influenced by convective weather when two parameters were available .