马尔科夫链模型在空管自动化系统可靠性分析中的应用

空中交通管理的主要任务是保证航空器间隔，确保空中交通的安全高效运行。空管系统与旅客生命及航空公司的经济利益息息相关这种特殊性决定了系统必须有相当高的保障，须做到及早发现及早处理问题。目前，国内主要考虑软件对空管自动化系统的影响，采用模糊数学、灰色系统理论、加权算法等对其软件可靠性进行评估。为了做到及早发现及早处理问题，提出采用马尔科夫链模型对空管自动化系统软件s1，s2，s3三个状态进行预测和验证，取得了较好的结果。

Markov Chain Apply in Air Traffic Control Automatic System Software Reliability Analysis

The main task of Air Traffic Management（ATM） is to ensure space of the aircraft and the high efficiency of air traffic. ATCAS has a close relationship with passenger＇s life and the economic benefit of Airline Company. So, the ATCAS must be high reliable, must be resolve fault as soon as possible. In domestic, the study mainly focused on software affect ATCAS, it usually adopted fuzzy mathematics, grey system theory ,weighed algorithm evaluated its software reliability. For the object that resolve fault as soon as possible, it＇ll adopt markov chain to predict the s1, s2, s3 three state of ATCAS, the result indicates that this method is feasible and application is wide.