基于准模拟的飞机过站时间预测方法

飞机过站时间是飞机级设计要求，它对航空公司运营成功与乘客满意度有重要影响。因此，在飞机概念设计阶段，有必要对其设计要求进行确认。提出了一种基于准模拟的飞机过站时间预测方法，其中占过站时间较大比例的乘客登离机时间利用基于离散时间仿真方法计算得来，其余过站服务时间由工程经验方法进行估算。利用此方法对各大飞机公司所提供的型号进行登离机时间模拟，并验证了仿真模型的精确度。以某单通道飞机为例，计算登离机时间并估算飞机过站时间，算例表明此方法能为设计人员评价不同登离机人数、登离机策略、舱门个数对过站时间的影响。在飞机概念设计阶段，设计员能够利用此方法快速获得较可信的登离机时间和过站时间。

A Semi-simulation Prediction Method Aircraft Turnaround Time

Aircraft turnaround time is an aircraft level design requirement and it has a significant impact on an airline's success and passenger's satisfaction. Therefore,this design requirement needs to be verified in the aircraft conceptual design phase. A semi-simulation based method is proposed to predict the turn-around time in the aircraft conceptual design phase:Discrete Time Simulation method is used for airplane boarding and deboarding time,an engineering empirical method is used to estimate time taken for other turnaround services. The proposed method has been validated using the data of actual airplanes of differ-ent sizes and manufactures. The boarding and deboarding time of a typical single aisle aircraft are calcu-lated and the total turnaround time is predicted. The case shows that the method allows the designers to assess the impact of exchange passenger number,boarding strategy and the number of boarding/deboard-ing doors. The desingers can quickly obstain a reliable estimated turnaround time in the aircraft conceptu-al design phase using this method.