一种终端区利用率评估方法研究

终端区利用率量化评估是解决终端区运行瓶颈、挖掘运行潜力的重要前提。现有方法大都面向全空域，指标缺乏通用性。聚焦终端区运行特点，构建了终端区利用率评估指标，基于灰色绝对关联度和主成分分析法，建立了灰色主成分评估模型，并对传统灰色绝对关联度的计算方法进行改进。以20个典型终端区数据为基础，经模糊C均值聚类验证了所提方法有效正确，且可区分性更好，能够满足多个终端区间的横向对比要求；结合广州终端区雷达数据进一步分析，发现方法更加细致地反映了沿时间轴的资源利用情况，满足单个终端区的纵向对比要求，可以为终端区的天气影响评估及流量管理优化策略评估提供论证依据。

Research on Evaluation Method of Terminal Area Utilization Rate

The quantitative evaluation of the utilization rate of terminal area is the important premise of solving terminal operation bottleneck and mining potential operation capacity. Present methods are mostly oriented from the all airspace,lacking indexes′generality. This paper focuses on terminal area operation characteristic and constructs the indexes about utilization rate evaluation of terminal area. Then an greyp-rincipal component analysisassessment model is constructed which is based on absolute degree of grey in-cidence and principal component analysis( PCA) method,and an improvement is made in calculation of traditional absolute degree of grey incidence. Using the fuzzy clustering method( FCM) to verify the meth-od is accurate and effective according to the data about 20 terminal areas,and it can improve the distinc-tion which can meet the need of transverse comparisonon the multiple terminal areas. It is found that the method is more painstaking to reflect the utilization of terminal area along time axis based on radar data a-bout Guangzhou terminal area,which can meet the need of longitudinal comparison on the single termi-nal. It can also fed back for assessing the severe weather impact on terminal area and optimization strategy of flow management.