协同决策下基于物元模型的航班延误预警研究

为了对枢纽机场航班延误进行有效预警,选用了5个预警指标构建了航班延误预警特征指标体系.利用可拓学的物元模型研究表现机场航班延误运行状态的指标之间的相互作用关系,建立延误情况评价指标,并采用可拓关联函数及可拓评价方法,对机场航班延误情况指标的可拓量化值进行预警评估.通过实例仿真,结果表明预警模型能够比较准确地反映机场的航班延误情况,为机场在协同决策系统中发布航班延误的预警情况提供科学的参考信息.

Research on Flight Delay Early Warning Based on Matter-element Model under Collaborative Decision-making

In order to effectively predict the delay of the airport underthe collaborative decision-making mechanism ,five early warning indicators were selected ,constituting flight delaywarning index system .This paper studies the interaction between the indicators of airport flight delays by using thematter -element model of the extension ,establishes the evaluationindex of the delay situation ,and adopts the extension re-lation function and the extension evaluation method to analyze the airport flight delay condition index ex -tended quantizationvalue for early warning assessment .Through the example simulation ,the results show thatthe early warning model can accurately reflect the flight delay situation of the airport and provide sci-entific reference information for the airport to publish the delay of flight delay in the collaborative decision making system.