民航客运票价影响因素探讨

以宏观经济学供给与需求关系理论为基础，分析了影响民航客运票价的因素，包括供给、需求、竞争、航线距离、季节性和特殊航线等，建立了基于引力模型和多元线性回归，以运力、客座率和航线距离等为输入的国内拟开航线经济舱票价预测模型，成为类比法的一种补充。并提出通过调整乘数系数的方法，使得模型适用于季节性、特殊航线和长期预测需求。

Analysis of Passenger Ticket Price for Civil Aviation

Based on the macroeconomic theory of relation between supply and demand, this article analyzes the factors which impact on air ticket price, such as supply, demand, competition, route distance, seasonal, special routes etc.. A model to forecast the airlines economic class ticket price on new opened route, and to be a supplement method of analogue was established , based on the gravity model and multiple linear regression, and using capacity, load factor, distance etc.. The model will be able to suit to seasonal, special routes and long term forecast requirements by adjusting the multiplication coefficient.