共因失效率的不确定性评估

利用影响矢量法中定义权值的思想并对其进行扩展,针对数据的不确定性问题,提出了一种新的共因失效率的计算方法。该法综合考虑评估和统计的不确定性,利用概率生成函数,根据权值来获得系统多重失效率的均值和方差。算例表明,在计算共因失效率均值时,该法与传统的近似计算法获得了相同的结果,而在计算方差时,传统的近似法给出了过于乐观的结果。

Uncertainty Quantification of Common Cause Failure Rates

Based on the impact vector method, the concept of weights is extended which separates single and double events of a specific multiplicity in a single observation. Moments and variances of multi-failure rates are obtained in terms of the weights by using probability generating functions. The examples show that the same results can be obtained when calculating the moments by the present method and traditional approximate method, while the variances calculated by the traditional approximate method are lower 15% than those calculated by the present method.