基于模型的复杂系统安全性和可靠性分析技术发展综述

复杂系统的安全性、可靠性分析一直是装备通用质量特性领域关注的热点问题。随着航空机载系统向综合化、集成化、智能化方向发展，系统的功能逻辑、架构设计以及容错设计越来越复杂，以人工演绎推理为主的传统安全性、可靠性分析手段已经越来越不能满足要求，模型驱动的分析方法正在成为复杂系统安全性、可靠性设计所依赖的重要技术手段。特别是近几年，基于模型的系统工程技术发展迅猛，并在国内外航空企业中得到了广泛的应用和认可，这为基于模型的系统安全性、可靠性设计技术的进一步发展提供了有利条件。本文主要对国内外基于模型的复杂系统安全性、可靠性分析技术的研究进展进行了介绍，并对该项技术未来的发展方向和趋势进行了分析，为装备开展系统安全性、可靠性分析工作提供借鉴。

Recent development of safety and reliability analysis technology for model-based complex system

Safety and reliability analyses of complex systems have always been a hot issue in the general quality characteristics design of the material. With the development of airborne system towards integration, complexity, and intellectualization, the function logic, architecture design, and fault-tolerant design of the system become more and more complex. The traditional safety and reliability analytical methods based on artificial deductive reasoning cannot meet the current requirements. The model-driven design method is becoming an important technique for the safety and reliability design of complex systems. Especially in recent years, model-based system engineering technology has developed rapidly and has been widely used and recognized in domestic and foreign aviation enterprises, providing favorable conditions for the further development of model-based system safety and reliability design technology. This paper mainly introduces the research progress of model-based safety and reliability analysis technology of complex system at home and abroad analyzing the future development direction and trend of this technology, providing references for system safety and reliability analysis of the material.