事故推演建模技术研究

 在总结现有事故模型、复杂系统特性分析的基础上，提出基于系统学的事故模型——事故推演模型，该模型强调从分析系统各组成部分的耦合关系及系统涌现特性的角度揭示事故是如何发生的。针对目前尚缺乏成熟的方法来支持基于系统学的事故分析的现状，建立了与事故模型匹配的事故推演建模方法，层次化面向对象的Petri网（HOOPN），给出HOOPN的形式化描述，分析了HOOPN对事故推演建模的支持能力，介绍了基于HOOPN的事故推演建模程序。最后利用HOOPN建立民用航空器盘旋进近过程的事故推演模型，并对模型进行定性分析，验证该方法的适用性。

Research on Accident Rehearsal Modeling Technique

Based on a summary of existing accident models and an analysis of the characteristics of complex systems, a new accident model—accident rehearsal model is presented in this article. The model expounds the development of accidents by analyzing various components of a system, the relationships between them, and the conditions for the emergence of the system. In view of the fact that there is no mature approach to support current accident models based on systems theory, a modeling technique, i.e., hierarchical object oriented Petri nets (HOOPN), is introduced to work with the accident rehearsal model, which includes the definition of HOOPN，the analysis of the capability of this technique for accident rehearsal modeling, and the modeling process based on HOOPN. Finally, an accident rehearsal model of the aircraft spiral approach process is provide by using HOOPN, and the analysis of this model serves to validate the feasibility of this technique.