以保障活动为中心的装备保障资源数量预测

 根据保障资源在装备使用任务活动和装备保障活动中被消耗或占用的特点提出了以保障活动为中心的保障资源预测方法。以装备的运行活动为驱动，结合装备的可靠性、维修性和测试性等设计特性，建立装备使用任务与装备保障活动之间的关系，对保障活动的频度和时域特征进行抽象。根据保障资源使用特点进行分类，归纳了以保障活动为中心的装备保障资源预测的输入条件。从消耗性资源和占用性资源两个方面分别建立了保障资源需求量预测模型，可以在一个特定阶段内对保障站点内的装备群保障资源平均需求量进行预测，并用飞机装备进行了案例验证，可为研制部门进行保障资源数量预测提供有效的理论和技术支持。

Quantitative Forecast of Support Activity Centered Equipment Support Resources

This article presented a support activity centered equipment support resources forecasting method based on the characteristics of equipment support resources being consumed or processed in equipment operational activities and support activities. Driven by equipment operational activities, a relationship between equipment mission and support activity was constructed, which was constrained by equipment reliability, maintainability, testability, etc. The characteristics of frequency and executing time of equip...