基于混合验前分布的制导精度评定方法

如何合理有效地利用验前信息是小子样评定中的关键问题。针对导弹制导精度评定，提出了一种根据验前数据构造验前分布的方法，并结合验前信息可信度给出了一种混合验前分布。通过对参数验后估计的分析，该方法能够有效避免验前信息“淹没”现场信息的情况，而验前信息可信度则通过验后边缘分布得到。通过对验后估计均方差(MSE)的分析，给出了验前信息利用的一些基本原则，为工程应用提供了指导。

Evaluation of Missile Guidance Precision Based on Hybrid Prior Distribution

How to use prior information effectively and reasonably in the Bayesian method is a key issue in small sample evaluation. For the evaluation of guidance precision of missiles, the article presents a new approach to construct the prior distribution in terms of prior data, and put forward a hybrid prior distribution after introducing the concept of prior data credibility. The hybrid distribution can overcome effectively the domination of prior information over current data through analyzing the posterior esti...