系统可靠性增长评估模型研究

根据系统在研制期间故障强度变化规律.考虑故障间隔时间影响的情况下,提出了广义可靠性增长评估模型,分析了其参数特性,并给出了拟合优度检验方法;然后,给出了定时截尾和定数截尾情况下,模型参数的极大似然估计公式,采用Simpson方法将积分函数化为求和函数,使得参数估计计算方便,绐出了趋势检验方法给出了可靠性增长评估公式;最后,结合发动机故障数据进行了的实例分析,结果表明,模型对试验数据拟合较好,评估结果符合工程实际,模型具有实际应用价值.

Research on system reliability growth assessment model

According to the variation rule of failure intensity of repairable systems,and with a view of the influence of inter-failure time,a generalized reliability growth(GRG) model was developed,and the property was analyzed from different parameter values.Additionally,the trend test was also presented.Secondly,maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters was given under time censored and failure censored test.The Simpson rule was used to change the integral formula into the function of sum.The goodness-of-fit test and reliability growth assessment method were presented.Finally,a group of test data of some turbofan engines were analyzed.The result shows that the data is good fitted by the GRG model,and the assessment of the reliability growth is suitable to the engineering applications.