基于信息融合的航空发动机剩余寿命预测

利用航空发动机状态监测信息,考虑到信息本身具有的误差性和随机性等特点,采用贝叶斯线性模型融合了监测信息,实现了综合利用多源信息的进行航空发动机性能衰退评估;以性能衰退评估结果为输入变量,建立基于Gamma随机过程的可靠性评估模型,预测在指定性能可靠性水平下的剩余寿命.通过算例,分析了不同监测参数对剩余寿命预测的影响.该方法能将性能监测与可靠性分析集成到一个框架中,充分利用了多种状态监测信息,结果更加准确,更符合控制航空发动机维修决策风险的实际.

Residual useful life prediction for aircraft engine based on information fusion

The monitoring information has been utilized and fused for performance degradation evaluation.In consideration of random and error information, Bayesian linear model has been used for performance degradation evaluation of aircraft engine.The result of the performance degradation evaluation has been seen as input variable, and the reliability evaluation model has been built based on gamma random process which was used for forecasting residual life under predetermined reliability index.For example, the effect of different monitoring parameters on residual useful life prediction was analyzed.The method can integrate performance monitoring with reliability analysis into one framework, which utilizes monitoring information adequately. As a result of above, the goal of an accurate prediction of residual useful life has been achieved, which accords with the demand of maintenance risk control for aircraft engines.