极少失效数据的可靠性评估和寿命预测

针对高可靠性产品寿命试验中经常出现只有极少失效数据的情况,提出一种可靠性评估和寿命预测方法.在Weibull分布形状参数下限已知的情况下,给出使用寿命和可靠度的单侧置信下限,该方法具有能将所有失效数据和未失效寿命数据进行累加的优点.文中还建立不同状态之间不完全数据的损伤等效折算公式,实现不同状态之间不完全数据的整体推断,增大了信息量,提高了预测精度.本文方法易于计算,便于工程应用.

Reliability assessment and life prediction for very few failure data

Aiming at the very few failure data which was usually found in life test of high reliability product,a method of reliability assessment and life prediction was put forward.The one-side lower confidence limits of the service life and reliability were derived under the condition of knowing the lower limit of shape parameter of Weibull distribution.It has the merit of that all the failure data and suspension data can be accumulated.Furthermore,the convert formula of the data among different states was established by the principle of damage equivalence.Thus,the data among different states can be analyzed together and the prediction precision is improved.The presented method is a practical approach with simple calculation and convenient application.