| 复杂系统可靠性评定先验分布的样条函数估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘琦,冯静,周经伦.复杂系统可靠性评定先验分布的样条函数估计[J].航空动力学报,2005,20(1):164-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘琦 冯静 周经伦 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学,信息系统与管理学院,湖南,长沙,410073 |
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| 摘 要： | 在经验 Bayes理论的基础上 ,研究了利用样条函数拟合系统任务可靠度先验分布的方法。对 Weibull、指数和二项分布的三种试验结果 ,给出 Bayes方法可靠性计算公式。最后给出的一个实例表明 ,该方法计算简便、便于工程应用
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| 关 键 词： | 航空、航天推进系统 Bayes分析 可靠性评定 经验Bayes 样条函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-8055(2005)01-0164-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004/3/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月28日 |
Spline Function Assessment of Prior Distribution for Complex System Bayesian Reliability Evaluation |
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| LIU Qi,FENG Jing and ZHOU Jing-lun.Spline Function Assessment of Prior Distribution for Complex System Bayesian Reliability Evaluation[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2005,20(1):164-168. |
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| Authors: | LIU Qi FENG Jing and ZHOU Jing-lun |
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| Institution: | School of Information System and Management,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha410073,China;School of Information System and Management,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha410073,China;School of Information System and Management,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha410073,China |
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| Abstract: | To acquire proper prior distribution is a key problem in complex system Bayesian reliability evaluation.Based on the empirical Bayes theory,a spline density fitting for the prior function of system's mission reliability was studied.The reliability test data based on Weibull,exponential and binomial distribution model was analyzed, and reliability evaluation formula was presented.Finally an example was given to show this method is simple in calculation and usable for engineering application. |
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| Keywords: | aerospace propulsion system Bayesian analysis reliability evaluation empirical Bayes spline function |
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