无人机系统安全目标水平预估方法

考虑无人机系统（UAS）与有人机运行安全特性的不同，通过事件树分析识别出对地撞击是无人机系统运行的首要风险方式。基于等效安全水平的概念，建立确定无人机系统安全目标水平的对地撞击模型，将无人机撞击动能、构型参数以及飞行环境因素综合考虑到模型中，并计算了不同无人机系统在不同运行场景下的安全目标水平以及基于我国地域人口的安全目标水平，结果表明: 在考虑运行环境的情况下，对无人机系统安全目标水平的定量要求可能跨越4～5个数量级。在此基础上，结合风险矩阵的概念，给出基于对地撞击情况的无人机系统运行风险评价矩阵，为无人机系统运行风险评价提供了一种可行思路。 

Estimated method of target level of safety for unmanned aircraft system

Considering the differences of safety features between unmanned aircraft system(UAS) and manned aircraft, the ground impact was recognized as the critical risk condition by means of event tree analysis. Based on definition of equivalent level of safety, safety evaluation model for unmanned aircraft system was established by consideration of kinetic energy, configuration and flight environment factors. Target levels of safety evaluation approaches based on different UAS classes operating in different scenarios and Chinese population density were discussed. Results indicated that quantitative requirement for UAS operating in different scenarios may range between 4 or 5 orders of magnitude. On this basis, risk evaluation matrix of UAS operation based on ground impact condition was proposed, providing an effective approach to risk evaluation matrix for operations of UAS.