| 民航维修安全质量综合评估与预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张军,贺利.民航维修安全质量综合评估与预测[J].中国民航学院学报,2007,25(6):5-8. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张军 贺利 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国国际航空股份有限公司工程技术分公司成都维修基地 成都610202(张军)，中国国际航空股份有限公司工程技术分公司 北京101312(贺利) |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国民用航空总局软科学研究基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 提出了建立量化的民航维修安全质量综合评估系统并对关键性指标的变化趋势进行预测分析的新设想,为民航维修安全管理提供科学的方法和手段,也为航空安全管理系统(SMS)的实施垫定了基础。从安全状况、质量状况、维修能力和维修经济性四个方面,利用模糊数学进行综合评估,形成反映民航维修总体状况的安全质量指数(SQI);同时利用灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型和时间序列分析模型对未来的趋势进行预测。评估和预测分析的结果为管理者提供准确的决策依据,及时发现不良趋势并采取相应的预防措施,确保航空安全。
|
| 关 键 词： | 民航维修 安全 质量 综合评估 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5000（2007）06-0005-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-05-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-10-26 |
Comprehensive Evaluation and Forecast Analysis of Safety and Quality in Civil Aviation Maintenance |
| |
| ZHANG Jun,HE Li.Comprehensive Evaluation and Forecast Analysis of Safety and Quality in Civil Aviation Maintenance[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2007,25(6):5-8. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Jun HE Li |
| |
| Abstract: | An idea of setting up a measuring and comprehensive evaluation system for safety and quality in civil aviation maintenance industry,and performing the forecast analysis of some key factors was proposed for the first time and provided a scientific method for safety management,and also was benefit of implementation of the aviation safety management system(SMS).Fuzzy Mathematics method was utilized to establish a safety quality evaluation model for civil aviation maintenance industry.The model included four aspects to perform a integrated index,SQI,which reflected the safety and quality status of one maintenance organization.In the meanwhile,the GM(1,1) model in the grey theory and time series model were applied to analyze and forecast the safe and quality tendency in the future,which helped the management to make corrected decision and took preventive action,kept a good safety record. |
| |
| Keywords: | civil aviation maintenance safety quality comprehensive evaluation forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
