基于Event的侧向碰撞风险改进模型

Event模型是一种基于长方体碰撞模板的碰撞风险评估模型，用该模型评估所得的碰撞风险概率过于保守。将碰撞模板改为圆柱体，建立了基于碰撞圆柱体的Event模型。在相同条件下运用Event模型和改进的Event模型对平行航路的侧向碰撞风险进行了评估计算，后者的碰撞风险是原Event模型碰撞风险的86.9％，仿真结果表明改进模型碰撞风险评估更精确，能够为中国平行航路的开辟进行安全评估计算提供理论依据。

Improved Lateral Collision Risk Model Based on Event

The Event model used for evaluating collision risk is based on cuboid collision slab. Tbe probability of collision risk of parallel routes evaluated by this model is somewhat conservative. The collision slab is used of cylinder, A new Event model based on collision cylinder is estabilished. Under the same conditions, the lateral collision risk of parallel routes is evaluated by the Event model and the improved Event model respectively. The collision risk of the case evaluated by the improved model is 86.9%, compared to the result of the Event model. The simulation results indicate that the collision risk of the improved model is more precise. The improved model can laid the theoretical basis for the safety assessment of initionating parallel routes in China.