非典事件对民航客运的干预影响分析

随着人们消费能力的增强和航空业市场化的深入,中国民航客运量发生了爆炸性的增长,但由于民航面对的是高端客运市场,行业具有高风险的特征,容易受到外部冲击的影响。通过时间序列模型的干预分析考察了非典事件对民航客运量的影响。从分析结果看,非典外部冲击对民航客运量的负面作用很快被市场反弹和相关优惠政策抚平,并对客运量的增长带来了持续的正影响。这一结果说明高速发展阶段的民航对抗非典这类外部冲击的能力较强,直接和滞后的减税政策并非最优的政策选择。

Impact Analysis of SARS Epidemic on Air Passenger Market in China

With the development of the economy and the reform of the air industry,the air passenger volume of China increases explosively.However,as high level passenger market,the air industry is easily affected by events such as SARS.This paper applies intervention model to analysis time series of air passenger in China.The outcome indicates the impact of SARS is negative,but it is covered by rebound of the market and the tax reduction policy,which brings about a lasting positive effect on the passenger volume.And we further discuss the policy implication on whether it is necessary to use tax reduction policy on air industry in high speed growth stage.