基于 CER的运载火箭研制费用估算

运载火箭研制费用估算是费用管理中的一个重要环节。正确估算研制费用对于方案选优、加强研制过程中的费用管理以及估算整个寿命周期的费用等都具有十分重要的意义。参考美国国家宇航局（ NASA ）的费用估算关系（ CER ）模型，提出了基于运载能力、起飞质量、外形尺寸等参数的参数-费用估算模型。鉴于我国运载火箭样本少的实际情况，采用偏最小二乘法（ PLS）对该模型进行了实证检验，估计值与真实值之间的偏差较小，估计效果比较理想。为下一步运载火箭研制方案筛选和费用管理提供了依据。

Development Cost Estimation of Launch Vehicle Based on CER Model

Development cost estimation is a crucial procedure in the cost management of a launch vehicle.It is critical to estimate the development cost correctly for optimal concept selection , cost management and control during the research process , as well as the life cycle cost estimation .Cur-rently, there is no formal cost estimation system for launch vehicle in China and most of the estima-tions are conducted by subjective judgment .In reference to the cost estimation relations （ CER ） model of NASA, a parameters-cost estimation model was given , which included the launch capacity , liftoff mass and outline dimension .Partial least square （ PLS） was adopted to verify the model , due to the smaller sample size and the higher correlation between variables .The deviation between esti-mation results and the actual value is small enough and the result provides the basis for the further screen and cost management of launch vehicle .