中国大豆进口贸易影响因素的实证分析

近年来我国大豆需求及进口数量逐年增长，大豆的对外依存度也逐年提高。文章选取国内大豆产量、大豆进口量、豆油及豆粕产量、国内外价格比等指标，利用Johansen检验法确定各变量之间的协整关系，采用Granger因果检验法确定中国大豆进口贸易的影响因素。研究证实，国内大豆产量、豆粕和豆油需求、国内外大豆价格比是影响我国大豆进口的重要因素，提出了控制大豆进口规模、积极生产非转基因大豆等政策建议。

An Empirical Study on Determinants of Soybean Import in China

In recent years the soybean demand and import quantity were growing rapidly year by year. Soybean trade influence farmers, manufacturers and consumers＇ benefit immediately. This article uses the Johansen inspection method to determine the association entire relations of various variables such as local production, import, soybean oil prodution, ere, and uses the Granger causes and effects inspection method to determine the influencing factor of the soybean import trade, discusses different influence of the primary factor to the soybean import finally. It takes some suggestion, including controling the scale of soybean import and propagating ＂green food＂.