地市级政府规模影响因素的实证研究——以河南省为例

政府规模是我国推进行政体制改革、简政放权进程中值得关注的一个重大课题,文章以＂利维坦假说＂和＂瓦格纳法则＂为理论基础,利用河南省1990~2012年的地市级面板数据,通过构建静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,从一个更微观的视角考察了地方政府规模的影响因素。研究发现,财政分权推动了地方政府规模的扩大,＂利维坦假说＂并不成立;而经济发展水平、城镇化率与地方政府规模也呈正相关关系,即＂瓦格纳法则＂是成立的;此外,我们还发现人口规模、产业结构和开放程度也是影响地方政府规模的重要因素。

An Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Local Government Size at Prefectural Level

In the process of China＇s government reform,we should pay much attention to the government size which is a great subject. This paper,using＂Leviathan Hypothesis＂and＂Wagner Rule＂as the theoretical basis and build a static panel data model and dynamic panel data model to analysis influence factors of local government size by using the panel of the Henan Province from 1990 to 2012. Results shows： fiscal decentralization forces local government size to expand,and Leviathan hypothesis fails to work; the level of economic development,urbanization rate and local government size are positively related,the＂Wagner Rule＂is right; in addition,we also found that the factors of population size,industrial structure and the opening degree also affects the size of the local governments.