冲偏出跑道事件风险影响指标分析

目前对冲偏出跑道风险的研究多基于事故统计数据，较少从飞行数据及飞行操作特征的角度进行分析。基于飞行数据，对冲偏出跑道事件开展风险分析。将飞行数据分为飞行状态、操作指令、信息3 类，以此研究飞机在起飞滑跑、着陆、着陆滑跑3 个阶段的状况及风险影响指标；通过数据所反映的操作特征，结合标准操作程序，推导出飞机偏离正常数据、与标准操作不相符的操作，得到影响正常飞行的风险因素；基于行为安全2-4 模型，建立冲偏出跑道风险评价指标体系，对实际案例的事故致因机理进行研究，着重分析操作特征及人为因素，并提出冲偏出跑道风险防控措施。结果表明：通过对飞行操作特征及飞行参数的分析，从操作类、数据类以及环境类3 个维度建立风险影响指标体系，可以降低指标因素对冲偏出跑道事件的影响；从人、机、环、管方面提出改进措施，可有效降低冲偏出跑道事件发生的概率。

Risk Analysis of Runway Excursion Event Based on QAR Flight Data

The QAR(Quick Access Recorder) data can reflect the aircraft status and most of the flight operation process, so it can be used to analyze the risk of runway excursion events. Therefore, based on the QAR data, the risk analysis for runway excursion is performed. The QAR data is divided into three categories: flight status, operation instructions and information, so as to analyze the status of the aircraft in the three stages of take-off run, landing and landing run. Through the operating characteristics reflected by the QAR data, combined with the SOP (standard operating procedures), the operations that exceed the normal data and do not conform to the standard operations can be deduced, and the risk factors affecting the normal flight are obtained. Based on the 2-4 model of behavior safety, the risk assessment index system of runway excursion can be established. Based on the causative mechanism of an accident, focusing on the analysis of operational characteristics and human factors, the risk prevention and control measures for overshoot runway excursion are proposed. The results show that, through the analysis of flight data and flight operation characteristics, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for runway excursion, which can effectively improve the safety of operation for flight. And theoretical basis for improving the safe operation of runway excursion is provided.