基于改进Event模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险研究

随着民航空域运行的日益繁忙，如何从量化分析的角度构建有效合理的数学模型对航路飞行碰撞风险进行量化评估，提高航路规划与管理的科学性是业界面临的重要问题。提出基于改进Event 模型的航路飞行过程垂直碰撞风险评估方法，用符合航空器在空间上速度矢量分布的几何体即两个拼接的椭圆锥体碰撞盒代替原Event 模型中的长方体碰撞盒计算航空器穿越相邻高度层的概率，并利用改进前后碰撞盒的面积大小比值推导改进后航路中航空器的垂直碰撞风险公式；对使用改进的两个拼接椭圆锥体碰撞盒方法所得到的碰撞风险公式带入以最新的客机A220 与客机A310 作为算例编写的软件中进行计算验证。结果表明：改进方法计算的航空器在航路中垂直碰撞风险是原长方体Event 模型碰撞风险模型的13% 左右，是原椭球体Event 模型碰撞风险模型的67% 左右，使用该方法进行量化评估是可行的。

Study on vertical collision risk in flight route based on improved Event model

With the increasingly busy operation of civil aviation airspace, the possibility of flight conflict on air route increases. From the perspective of quantitative analysis, how to build an effective and reasonable mathematical model for the quantitative assessment of flight collision risk on air route, improve the scientificity of air route planning and management, and build an effective and reasonable mathematical model for the quantitative assessment of flight collision risk on air route is a problem facing the industry. An improved Event model based vertical collision risk assessment method for flight route is proposed. In this method, the cuboid in the original Event model is replaced by two elliptical cones which correspond to the velocity vector distribution of the aircraft in space. The probability of the aircraft passing through the adjacent altitude layers is calculated, and the vertical collision risk value of the aircraft in the improved route is derived from the ratio of the area size of the collision box before and after the improvement. Calculation examples show that the vertical collision risk of the improved method is about 50% of that of the original cuboid Event model, and 60% of that of the original ellipsoid Event model. The improved collision risk model is more reasonable and feasible.