火箭垂直起飞段漂移变化的建模与分析

垂直起飞段是火箭靶场试验过程中最容易发生故障的时段之一，并且起飞段发生故障带来的后果往往是灾难性的。因此，分析运载火箭起飞段的运行情况，测量箭体起飞漂移和分析漂移量变化规律，对于航天工程具有极为重要的意义。在系统分析某一型号火箭起飞段漂移情况的基础上，建立了火箭垂直起飞段漂移模型．查明了箭体漂移量服从自回归模型AR(5)，并采用D—W典型检验方法，对数学模型实际情况的吻合性进行了检验。大量实测数据计算结果证实，该箭体漂移的运动学模型是可靠的，很好地刻画了火箭在垂直起飞段漂移量的变化规律。

Modeling and Analysis of the Drift Magnitude of Rocket during Vertical Takeoff Phase

Historically many dangerous faults were encountered in the takeoff period in rocket launches. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drift magnitude and to analyze the dynamic characteristics of rocket in takeoff process. Based on a quantitative analysis of the drift magnitude of a launch rocket, a series of practical models are developed for dynamic analysis of rocket drift and an auto-regressive model AR (5) is successfully used to describe the lateral drift magnitude of rocket. The famous D-W statistics is used to test validity of the model. A large amount of practical measurement and calculated drift data of rocket shows that the models are suitable for describing and analyzing drift of rocket in takeoff phase.