空域安全评估中的碰撞风险模型分析

碰撞风险研究是空域安全评估的关键内容。随着空中交通管理设备和技术的发展,碰撞风险的研究也深入展开。本文总结了国内外学者对碰撞风险模型的研究及应用,介绍了几种常用的碰撞风险模型或方法,包括概率论理论方法、Reich模型、EVENT模型、随机分析模型、交叉航路模型和模糊数学综合评价法,分析了各自优缺点,并对上述模型进行简要对比,为我国空域安全评估提供参考。

Study of the Collision Risk in Airspace Safety Assessment

The Study of collision risk is a key point in airspace safety assessment. With the de- velopment of air traffic management equipment and technology, the study of collision risk has ex- panded deeply. This paper summarizes the research and application of domestic and foreign scholars on collision risk model, and introduces several common collision risk models or methods, including probability theory, REICH model, EVENT model, stochastic analysis model, intersecting route model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Then the merits and drawbacks of each modet are ana- lyzed and compared with the hope of providing a reference to China＇s airspace safety assessment.