昆明新机场空中交通运行安全性评价

以昆明新机场为背景,对新机场空中交通安全性评估问题从理论和实际应用方面进行了比较系统、深入的研究.本文首先概述了国内外安全评价技术理论与方法的发展状况；进而从理论上探讨了民航空中交通管制安全评估的方法和作用,提出了针对空中交通安全的评价模型；其次,以即将投入运行的昆明新机场为背景,针对新机场空管运行的具体特点,根据已有的理论模型,采用层次分析法与故障树分析法相结合的办法,提出了空中交通安全模型的建立与分析方法；再次,论文根据系统评估出来的结果,系统地分析了各种制约限制因素对新机场空中交通安全运行评估结果的影响；最后,本文说明了把故障树分析法用于民航空管安全性评价的可行性,并对空中交通安全性评价的研究进行了展望.

Analysis on Midair ATC Safety of New Kunming International Airport

Based on the new Kunming International Airport, the midair air traffic management safety evaluation is deeply and systematically analyzed in this paper in aspects of theory and applica- tion. First of all, the former theories and methods of safety evaluation are summarized. Then, accord- ing to civil aviation air traffic management, the authors establish corresponding safety evaluation models and develop the methods of safety evaluation. After that, based on the developed models asso- ciated with the characteristics of the new Kunming International Airport, the safety evaluation method of the Fault Tree Analysis Model combining with AHP Analysis is constructed. Furthermore, accord- ing to the computerized evaluation results from the system, the factors affecting the result of safety evaluation to the new Kunming International Airport are systematically discussed in details. In the end, the feasibility of using Fault Tree Analysis in ATC safety evaluation are expatiated, and the further work on the research of integrated air-ground capacity evaluation and the relevant software develop- ment are proposed.