民机导线安全性基础数据模型建立方法

鉴于国内民机运营数据收集体系不健全,民机导线失效数据难以获取,提出利用专家经验建立导线安全性基础数据的改进模型。在分析导线失效模式的基础上,考虑各环境影响因素之间的相关性,构建导线安全性基础数据模型。确定适用于国内所有民机型号的典型失效环境,选择合适的领域专家对典型失效环境、环境变量严重程度和环境变量相关性进行评判,并对专家数据的有效性和一致性进行检验。优选配对比较模型,根据专家评判数据求解模型系数。计算结果表明,模型能够通过检验并具有较好拟合度。最后,利用实际统计数据所得失效率对模型进行修正。

Construction Method of Safety Basic Data Model for Civil Aircraft Wiring

The wire failure data of domestic civil aircraft are difficult to obtain because of the unsound collection system. To solve the problem of data acquisition, a construction method of improved model is proposed based on expert experience for the safety basic data of wiring. Firstly, a wire failure model is built based on the analysis of wire failure modes considering the correlation among the environment variables. Then, the typical failure environment, severity of environmental variables and correlation among environment variables are judged by selected experts in the field when typical failure environments applied to all domestic civil aircraft models are determined, and the effectiveness and consistency of judgment are checked. The model parameters are solved according to the results of expert judgment based on preferred paired comparison model. The results demonstrate the proposed model can pass the test and has good fitness. Finally, the wire failure model is amended by actual failure rate obtained from actual statistical data.