概率有限状态机在动态效能评估中的应用

为了反映作战过程中实时战场变化对武器作战效能的影响，本文对武器作战动态效能评估(DEE)方法进行研究，提出一种基于概率有限状态机(PFSM)的动态效能评估方法。利用该方法对武器作战过程进行动态效能评估的同时，能够快速准确地分析影响武器作战效能的关键因素，为作战方案决策及武器研发提供依据。该方法考虑了武器装备、战场环境、作战方案及作战目标这四个战场信息空间对武器效能的影响，能够根据实时战场信息输出动态效能变化曲线。本文以反舰导弹为例，对其进行动态效能评估，结果表明,本文所提出的方法能够动态评估不同战场信息对效能的影响，并快速找到影响其效能的关键因素，从而为作战方案优化提供参考。

Application of Probabilistic Finite State Machine in Dynamic Efficiency Evaluation

To reflect the impact of the changing battlefield information on the combat efficiency of weapons during operations, the method of dynamic efficiency evaluation (DEE) is studied, and a method based on probabilistic finite state machine (PFSM) is proposed. While applying this evaluation method, the key factors that limit the efficiency can be acquired quickly and precisely, so as to provide a reference for weapon development and operational decision-making. This method can model the influence on operational efficiency by four battlefield information spaces, namely the information spaces of weapon equipment, battlefield environment, operational methods, and targets. The evaluation system designed can output the dynamic efficiency-time curves when inputting the real-time battlefield information. This paper takes the anti-ship missile as an example to evaluate the dynamic efficiency, and the results show that the method can do dynamic efficiency evaluation based on the different battlefield information, and find the key factors that limit the efficiency to offer a reference for combat scheme optimization.