| 碰撞概率对轨道误差和接近几何条件的灵敏度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 白显宗,陈磊,唐国金.碰撞概率对轨道误差和接近几何条件的灵敏度分析[J].宇航学报,2016,37(4):427-434. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白显宗 陈磊 唐国金 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国人民解放军95997部队，北京 100076；2.国防科学技术大学航天科学与工程学院，长沙 410073 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41240031，U1231114） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于显式表达式对碰撞概率的灵敏度进行解析分析，给出其对接近距离的RSW分量、轨道误差、接近角度和目标大小的两类灵敏度（绝对灵敏度和相对灵敏度）。以美俄卫星碰撞事件为例进行计算和分析，得到灵敏度的变化曲线和数值。该解析方法可以克服数值分析方法中普遍存在的使用不便、计算量大、精度不高等问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 碰撞预警 碰撞概率 灵敏度 显式表达式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-06-29 |
Sensitivity of Collision Probability to Orbit Error and Close Approach Geometry |
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| BAI Xian zong,CHEN Lei,TANG Guo jin.Sensitivity of Collision Probability to Orbit Error and Close Approach Geometry[J].Journal of Astronautics,2016,37(4):427-434. |
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| Authors: | BAI Xian zong CHEN Lei TANG Guo jin |
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| Institution: | 1. PLA Unit 95997, Beijing 100076, China;
2. College of Aerospace Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China |
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| Abstract: | The sensitivity of collision probability is analyzed analytically based on the explicit expression, and two kinds of sensitivities (absolute and relative) to RSW components of relative position, orbital error standard deviations, conjunction angle and object size are provided. Taking the U.S. and Russian satellites collision event as an example, the sensitivity is computed and analyzed to obtain the sensitivity curves and values. This analytical method can effectively solve the problems such as inconvenience, heavy computation burden, and error-prone in the numerical method. |
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| Keywords: | Conjunction assessment Collision probability Sensitivity Explicit expression |
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