对流天气下空域通行能力短缺预警及响应综述

对流天气是空域通行能力短缺的主要原因之一。为了解决这一问题,需要通过理论和实践创新,建立对流天气条件下空域通行能力短缺的预警和应急响应机制,提高空域资源配置效率。从对流天气影响信息解释转换、容量评估与预警及空域响应预案三个方面梳理了国内外研究现状,总体趋势是:对流天气逐渐通过各种解释转换模型被量化为对空域和航路的影响;对流天气下空域通行能力主要受管制员工作负荷的限制,只有准确评估对流天气下的工作负荷,才能做出正确的通行能力短缺预警;对流天气响应方案,逐渐由地面等待、增加同航迹间隔、返航、备降等高耗能的流量控制措施,转向以灵活使用空域预案确保改航方案的实施方向发展。课题的应用前景是可以化解对流天气下交通需求与空域通行能力不平衡的矛盾,提高预警准确度,减少响应前置时间,提高流量管理与容量管理协同运行的效率,减轻对流天气造成的航班延误,减少航空器运行成本,实现节能减排的要求。

Early Warning and Response of Airspace Capacity Shortage in Convective Weather

Convective weather is one of the main reasons for the shortage of airspace capacity .In order to solve this problem ,early warning and emergency response mechanism of airspace capacity shortage under convective weather should be established by the innovation of theory and practice to improve the airspace resource allocation efficiency .From convection weather information interpretation ,airspace capacity evalu-ation and early warning and response plan in three aspects combing the domestic and foreign research present situation ,the overall trend is：Convective weather gradually through various explanatory model is quantified to impact on airspace and air route;airspace capacity in convective weather is mainly restricted by the controller′s workload , only accurately assessing the air traffic controller workload in convective weather can make the right capacity shortage early warning;Convective weather response plan , shifted gradually from high energy-consuming traffic control measures ,such as the ground waiting ,increasingsep-aration in same track,returning,alternating,etc.,to the developing plan forflexible use of the airspaceto ensure the implementation of the diversion program plan .The application prospectst of the subject is to re-solve the contradiction between traffic demand and airspace capacity imbalance under convective weath -er ,improve accuracy of early warning ,to reduce the lead time of the response ,enhance traffic management and capacity management co-operation efficiency , reduce the delays , reduce aircraft operating costs , a-chieve the requirement of energy conservation and emissions reduction .