交叉航路航空器碰撞风险评估

在与经典的Reich模型进行比较后,对一种基于事件的交叉航路航空器碰撞风险模型进行了改进,补充考虑了处于平飞阶段的航空器因在垂直方向上相对运动而导致的碰撞风险.分析了其水平碰撞概率较Reich模型所得结果保守的原因,采用蒙特卡洛仿真的方法产生了两架航空器之间的相对位置误差数据,针对多个概率分布模型进行了拟合,比较了不同概率分布模型对航空器碰撞风险的影响.结果表明:代表严重误差的尾部数据直接决定了航空器碰撞风险,但因为其数据较少,所以除广义帕累托分布外,其他分布都不能很好地对尾部数据进行拟合.

Aircraft collision risk assessment at intersecting air routes

After compared with the classical Reich modal, improvements was made on an event-based aircraft collision risk model at intercepting routes, the collision risk due to possible vertical relative movement was counted for aircraft in straight and level flight. The possible reason why the horizontal collision probability derived by the event model was excessively conservative than the Reich model was analyzed. The aircraft relative position error data were generated using Monte-Carlo simulation and fitted to several probability distributions, their effects on aircraft collision risk were compared. The result shows that it is the tail data representing the gross error that decide the aircraft collision risk and no distribution functions except generalized Pareto distribution can fit the tail data well due to less amount of gross error data.