Weibull分布下任务时间可靠度的置信限研究

为解决高可靠度要求的产品系统可靠度的评定问题，针对产品系统的工作时间服从威布尔分布，采用Fiducial方法，提出了只凭工作时间的‘小子样、零失效’可靠性试验样本，求取任务时间可靠度各置信限的方法及公式。给出算例，计算和分析了不同试验样本下系统任务时间可靠度的置信限。结果表明利用数个‘长寿’的‘小子样、零失效’工作时间试验样本，可以获得高置信度下系统任务时间可靠度的大下限；单凭非‘长寿’情况下的‘小子样、零失效’试验样本，只能得到任务时间可靠度的最高限，如能补充辅助可靠性信息，就能得到系统任务时间可靠度的可用置信估计。

Credibility bounds study of mission time reliability in Weibull distribution

For the reliability evaluation of highly reliable products, while the working time of product system obeys Weibull distribution, the formula about credible bounds of the mission time reliability were brought forward only based on 'small and zero failure samples' of the working time according to Fiducial Methods. Examples were given for calculating and analyzing credible bounds of the mission time reliability under different samples of working time. The results indicate that the lower credible bounds of system's mission time reliability in high conference level can be calculated based on several 'small and zero failure samples' in 'long life'. The maximum lower credible bounds of mission time reliability can be calculated , while only based on 'small and zero failure samples' in 'short life'. The useable credible bounds' estimation of system's mission time reliability could be gotten, if there is complementary reliability information