| 基于巨涨落模式的民航安全周期界定方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭元花.基于巨涨落模式的民航安全周期界定方法研究[J].中国民航学院学报,2010,28(1):1-4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭元花 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航厦门空中交通管理站,福建厦门361006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863高技术计划项目，天津市科学技术支撑计划重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国民航安全水平的周期性问题是民航安全研究的热点之一。在总结已有的民航安全波动周期界定方法的基础上，分析了系统安全周期性现象的形成过程，提出了采用安全水平巨涨落波动模式判断宏观安全周期的新方法，比较了不同界定方法的特点，并对新界定方法安全周期滞后的原因进行了分析，新方法对深化安全周期性问题的认识、促进持续安全具有积极意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 安全 生命周期 巨涨落 界定方法 |
Research of Civil Aviation Safety Cycle Definition Method Based on Huge Fluctuation Model |
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| GUO Yuan-hua.Research of Civil Aviation Safety Cycle Definition Method Based on Huge Fluctuation Model[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2010,28(1):1-4. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yuan-hua |
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| Institution: | GUO Yuan-hua(Xiamen Air Traffic Control Station of Civil Aviation,Xiamen 361006,China) |
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| Abstract: | The cyclical problem of Chinese civil aviation safety level is one of the hot spots in the civil aviation safety research field.Based on the conclusion of fluctuations in the cycle of civil aviation security definition methods,this paper analyzed the formation process of the cyclical phenomenon about system safety,and a new method has been provided to determine the cycle of macro safety,which used huge fluctuation model about the level of safety,compared the characteristics of different definition methods,a... |
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| Keywords: | safety life cycle huge fluctuation definition method |
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