利用精化误差进行危险交会分析

空间碎片碰撞预警工作主要针对的是可监测的较大空间碎片，预测航天器与碎片之间的碰撞风险，并根据一定的预警判据来评估风险的大小，进而做出合理的轨道规避决策．碰撞概率是碰撞风险评估的重要依据．复合体尺寸、交会距离和误差是影响碰撞概率的三个决定性因素．当复合体尺寸与交会距离差别不大时，误差因素对碰撞概率结果起着决定性的作用．在利用整天误差计算碰撞概率的基础上，提出了利用精化误差计算碰撞概率的方法，在危险交会分析中取得了良好的效果．

Collision Prediction Analysis Using Refined Error Data

With the expansion of human's activity in the outer space,the population of the space debris has grown greatly.Several collisions and breakup events in the recent period increased the total number of space debris sharply.These debris are causing serious threat to orbital spacecraft, and efficient protection must be done to deal with the growing collision risk.Space debris collision avoidance job mainly aims at big space debris that can be monitored,and predicting the collision risk between spacecraft and sp...