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Comparison of two reliability models for performance degradation analysis
作者姓名:WANG Zhi-hu  ZANG Guang-kui  ZHANG Yong-bo  FU Hui-min
作者单位:Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China,Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China,Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China,Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
基金项目:National Natural Science Foundation of China (11202011); Beijing Natural Science Foundation (3154034); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWK13HK11); National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB720000)
摘    要:In order to investigate the general reliability assessment methods based on performance degradation data, two commonly used stochastic process approaches, bilinear process method and random-effect model were studied. Analyzing procedure and effectiveness of these two methodologies were studied and compared. Meanwhile, the two approaches were illustrated through practical applications. The residual plots and the 10th percentile curves of the two methods were presented to demonstrate the comparative results. The random-effect model yielded more volatile residuals and a lower and unsafe 10th percentile curve. Consequently the bilinear process model can be concluded to derive more reasonable results due to its one-stage estimation property.

关 键 词:degradation  analysis  reliability  assessment  stochastic  process  bilinear  independent  increment  process  random-effect  model
收稿时间:2014/1/23 0:00:00

Comparison of two reliability models for performance degradation analysis
WANG Zhi-hu,ZANG Guang-kui,ZHANG Yong-bo,FU Hui-min.Comparison of two reliability models for performance degradation analysis[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2015,30(7):1632-1637.
Authors:WANG Zhi-hu  ZANG Guang-kui  ZHANG Yong-bo and FU Hui-min
Institution:Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China,Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China,Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China and Research Center of Small Sample Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
Abstract:In order to investigate the general reliability assessment methods based on performance degradation data, two commonly used stochastic process approaches, bilinear process method and random-effect model were studied. Analyzing procedure and effectiveness of these two methodologies were studied and compared. Meanwhile, the two approaches were illustrated through practical applications. The residual plots and the 10th percentile curves of the two methods were presented to demonstrate the comparative results. The random-effect model yielded more volatile residuals and a lower and unsafe 10th percentile curve. Consequently the bilinear process model can be concluded to derive more reasonable results due to its one-stage estimation property.
Keywords:degradation analysis  reliability assessment  stochastic process  bilinear independent increment process  random-effect model
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