基于EVENT模型的单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险分析

我国空域骨干航路拥挤不堪,一些支线航路的利用率却很低,单向循环航路的出现很好地解决了这一问题,对其进行安全评估是划设航路最重要的工作之一。在总结EVENT理论和相关文献的基础上,对单向循环航路和混合航路侧向碰撞风险进行比较分析,推算出目标安全等级下单向循环航路容量,并对单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险进行预测。结果表明,单向循环航路侧向碰撞风险远低于混合航路侧向碰撞风险,且未来10年均保持在比较稳定的安全水平。

Analysis on Lateral Collision Risk of One-way Loop Route Based on EVENT Model

Backbone routes of China＇s airspace are crowded ,the utilization rate of regional routes is very low, the appearance of One- way loop route is a good solution to this problem, the most important task of setting up this route is to evaluate its safety. Based on EVENT theory and related literature, comparing a- nalysis of lateral collision risk between one- way loop route and mixed routes, calculating the capacity of one- way loop route at the target level of safety, and predict the lateral collision risk of one - way loop route. It is finally concluded that the lateral collision risk of One- way loop route is much lower than the lateral collision risk of mixed route,and it will maintain at the stable level of safety in the next 10 years.