航天发射场加注系统风险评估技术研究

针对航天发射场加注系统风险评估主观随意性较大的问题,提出了基于综合云的多属性风险评估方法,并对某发射场加注系统的运行状态进行了风险评估.首先应用属性约简算法将加注系统风险源权重的确定问题转化为粗糙集理论中属性重要性的评价问题,通过计算得到加注系统各风险源的权重,从而使得加注系统风险源权重的确定更具客观性和合理性；其次,对综合云公式进行了改进,使权重系数直接参与不确定性计算,充分考虑了加注系统性能指标的评分误差给最终结果带来的各种影响.评估结果表明:1)当前使用中的加注泵性能为良偏下,此时的加注系统已经存在了安全隐患,需要更换新的加注泵,否则就容易发生危险；2)该方法能够进一步得到加注系统实际的更多细微信息,结果更加贴近实际.

Research on Risk Evaluation in Filling System of Space Launch Site

Aiming at the subjective and random problems in space launch site filling system risk evaluation(FSRE),a new method based on the synthetic cloud with multi-attributes to assess FSRE is proposed.Firstly,the calculation of risk source weights in filling system is transferred into the evaluation of attribution importance in the rough set theory by attribution reduction arithmetic,which makes the risk source weights more objective and reasonable.Secondly,synthetic cloud formula is improved and weight coefficient is introduced to uncertain calculation directly so that it can take the various effects that caused by score error of filling system indices into consideration fully.The evaluation results show that the current performance of filling pump is good,therefore,the danger in filling system exists and it must be replaced by a new one due to the risks would cause.The method can get more exact and subtle information,which makes the results approximate to the actual situation.