项目风险的一种模糊分析方法

由于影响项目的不确定因素繁多,专家们在评估一个项目的风险时,通常不得不使用一些模糊性语言.为了定量地评估项目的不确定性,提出了一种分析项目风险的新方法:用模糊集理论将这种模糊性语言定量化,即用一种简单的模糊数--三角模糊数来有效地表示项目的风险,通过比较这种三角模糊数的大小来判断风险的大小,从而评估出项目的优劣.最后,本文还认为如何准确地量化项目的不确定性仍是有待于进一步深入研究的课题.

Fuzzy Analysis Approach to Project Risk

Because there are lots of uncertain factors to influence a project,experts usually have to use some fuzzy words when they evaluate risks of a project.To evaluate quantitatively uncertainties of a project,this paper presents a new method of analyzing project risks.First,we can quantify these fuzzy words by using the fuzzy set theory,that is to say,we can express the project risks by using a kind of simple fuzzy number triangular fuzzy number;then we can judge the degree of the project risks by comparing the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the dominant project can be selected by comparing the risks of various projects.Finally,we also consider that how to quantify accurately uncertainties of a project is a very attractive problem,and we will make further researches on it.