煤炭开发供应能力系统动态模拟与分析

煤炭开发供应能力是煤炭基建与生产、供销与运输能力的综合反映。能源要求和供应矛盾的解决将主要取决于经济系统的运行情况。因此，在研究煤炭供应能力时，应把它作为一个系统来对待。本文根据系统动态学原理和方法，将影响煤炭开发供应能力的主要因素作为一个社会经济系统，建立和编制了全国煤炭开发供应能力系统动态学模型，主要用来预测至２０５０年我国煤炭开发供应能力及考察投资数量、新矿井（矿区）投产、矿井建设周期、矿井生产能力利用率的变化对煤炭开发供应能力的影响。

Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Supply Capability in Coal Development

The supply capability in coal development is a comprehensive index of coal capital construction and prodtlction, the capacity of supply and marketing and transportation. The solution of the contradiction between supply and demand depends mainly on the economical system. Therefore,when studying the coal supply capability,we should consider it as a system. Based on the principle and methods of system dynamics(SD),this paper considers the major factors affecting the supply capability in coal development to be a social economic system,establishes and compiles the dynamic model of supply capability system in coal development of the whole country which is mainly used to predict the supply capability until 2050, and investigates the effects of investment cost,the new coal mine shaft (of mine district)going into operation,the period of coal mine shaft construction,and the variation of utilization ratio of production capacity of coal mine shaft on the supply capability in coal development.