基于性能退化数据的可靠性评定方法研究

对于高可靠长寿命产品，基于性能退化数据分析产品可靠性是一种行之有效的技术途径。本文首先建立性能退化轨道模型和退化数据统计模型，然后详细论述了退化数据统计分析的多种大样本方法，并分析论述了各方法的优缺点。最后提出性能退化分析时，依然存在小样本问题，并提出性能退化轨道模型结合Bayes小样本技术，将是解决性能退化数据统计分析小样本问题的有效途径。

Reliability Evaluation Based on Performance Degradation Data

Using degradation measurement of product performance over time to analyze product reliability is an effective approach for high-reliability or long-llfe products. Performance degradation model and degradation data statistic model are present in this paper firsdy, then discuss particularly about some degradation data analysis methods of big sampling, at the same time analyze the merit and disadvantage of the methods. At last, the authors put forward an idea that there also exists small sampling issue in performance degradation analysis method. The authors also believe that the problem will be well solved by performance degradation path model and Bayes small sampling technology.