Modeling international cooperation in human space exploration for the twenty-first century.

The policy process of international cooperation in space exploration. including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the twenty-first century, is modeled and examined in this study. In the optimistic scenario, international cooperation involves a balanced and interdependent distribution of capabilities between states, their respective national space agencies and communities of space scientists and space engineers. Cooperation is characterized by interstate participation in critical path components and joint research and development. In the pessimistic scenario, international cooperation is structured and dominated politically and economically by powerful states vis-a-vis weaker states. Cooperation is limited to coordination of separate nationally approved projects and augmentation of capabilities in noncritical path components. On the basis of these two scenarios, policy predictions and implications relevant to exploration missions in the twenty-first century, such as a human-tended lunar base and human missions to Mars, are presented and discussed.