火箭发动机性能可靠性的Bayes分析

基于液体火箭发动机性能试验数据服从正态分布的条件 ,假定天地试验环境下分布的标准差不变 ,运用Bayes方法对正态分布天地试验条件下的环境因子进行分析。首先给出环境因子先验分布选择的方法 ;然后由Bayes公式结合少量的空间试验数据 ,得出环境因子的Bayes估计模型 ,最后给出空间试验条件下性能可靠性的分析方法 ,文中用实例说明了该方法的有效性。

The Bayes Analysis for Liquid Rocket Engine Performance Reliability

Based on the condition that the performance test data of liquid rocket engine is subject to normal distribution with constant standard deviation, the Bayes method is used to analyze the environment factor of ground and space performance test. First, according to the history test data and expert's information, the prior distribution of environment factor is presented. Then, combined with limited space test data, the Bayes formula is used to calculate the environment factor. Finally,the method for performance reliability analysis under space test environment is presented. An example is given to illustrate the validity of this method.